Ciclón Tropical Cat. 3 NICHOLAS (Huracán cat. 1 S.S-NW de Australia)

No es por nada, pero creo que el Sistema 98S es el resurgimiento de la tormenta tropical 17S............. ¿ué pensáis? Además su aspecto es brutal ahora mismo



EDITO: ya me han dicho que no, que este sistema es otro diferente

Sencillamente ha explotado.


Nada halagüeño el pronóstico para la costa australiana.
 

Saludos 

Primer parte del JTWC sobre el sistema

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICRO-
WAVE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF AN ORGANIZED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
DEVELOPING OVER THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN BOTH DECREA-
SING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 19S IS EXP-
ECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER AFTER TAU 48
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ALLOWING THE STORM TO BEGIN TRACKING IN A GEN-
ERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND INCREASING SPEED.

Creo que no hace falta traducción. Esto en mapa, se traduce en:



En 48 horas, de TS débil a Ciclón tropical Severo cat. 3 (Huracán cat. 1). Me parece poco, este bicho será mucho más potente seguro 

CICLÓN TROPICAL CAT. 1 NICHOLAS (TS S.S)

993mb-40kt

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 3:50 pm WDT on Wednesday, 13 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to
Bidyadanga.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Pardoo.

At 3:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, was estimated to be
425 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
700 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving east northeast at 8 kilometres per hour.

Nicholas has shown no signs of intensification during the day but in the longer
term it is still likely to intensify.  Nicholas is currently heading towards the
east northeast, however, it is forecast to take a more southerly movement.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas this afternoon or tonight, however, it
is possible gales could develop in coastal areas between Kuri Bay and Pardoo
later on Thursday or on Friday. Pilbara residents are advised that although the
Pilbara coast west of Pardoo is not under threat in the next 48 hours, there is
still a risk in that area over the weekend.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 3:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 14.4 degrees South 120.8 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the east northeast at 8 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 1
Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Pardoo and Kuri Bay should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 7:00 pm WDT Wednesday 13 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling  1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

NICHOLAS ya tiene el LLCC totalmente sumergido bajo un manto de convección profunda. En la animación Vis/Swir, se observa como ya gira ordenadamente en el sentido de las agujas del reloj. La cizalladura continua descendiendo, y la tormenta ya se encuentra bajo 10-20kt. Este bicho llegará a los 100kt sin problema:











 

Qué magnífico borbotón ! voy a ponerme las pilas una miaja

En fin, me pasa lo mismo que con IVÁN. Excesivo Navy, corto Bureau: ni Ciclón Tropical Severo, ni Ciclón Tropical cat. 1 (australianamente hablando  )





Bien organizado en niveles bajos, en altura le falta definir mejor la circulación, sobre todo por la parte E del sistema, donde tiene el vórtice con poca convección. La cizallladura, baja ligeramente hasta 15kt aprox. Los partes del JTWC ya elevan sus vientos en próximas jornadas hasta 80kt...., mis 100kt previstos están más cerca....